The Delivery Delays Report: Where shoppers are at risk of late deliveries

The year’s final three months are one of the busiest shopping seasons worldwide, known to retailers as the Golden Quarter. Spanning Black Friday and Cyber Monday through to the busy holiday season, consumer spending typically increases, creating a bumper season for businesses.   This year, logistics challenges may leave shoppers disappointed, as new data from Esendex reveals a growing gap in the availability of delivery workers across Australia, threatening to cause delays in meeting seasonal delivery demands.

In 2023, consumers around the world spent a record-setting $US4.1 billion with retail brands during Black Friday, helping to drive revenue during the Golden Quarter. Esendex data also found that 77% of consumers rein in their shopping up to a month before Black Friday, so they can splurge on sales and discounted items.   

While shoppers are on the hunt for quality deals and last-minute purchases, retailers are reliant on truck drivers and delivery drivers throughout this period, to ensure they can match the sharp rise in demand and keep customers happy. 

Australia is the 11th biggest e-commerce market in the world, predicted to exceed $US46 billion by the end of 2024. Research shows that online purchases made during Black Friday in 2023 increased by 88% compared to 2019, with approximately one in seven Australian households making weekly online purchases. 

Notably, 67% of those surveyed would also switch retailers for faster shipping, while 63% find the ability to track parcels the most important feature. 

This comes as the National Road Transport Association (NatRoad) highlighted a critical driver shortage across all business sizes and types in the trucking sector, from owner-operators to large fleet managers. They found a 14.4% shortfall in filling the gap, far higher than the national job vacancy rate of 5-6%. 

As customers demand prompt delivery, clear communication, and a swift turnaround at any time of the year, businesses can struggle to manage expectations when they experience higher order volumes during peak season. 

A growing shortage of delivery drivers can lead to potential bottlenecks in some regions, posing a risk of severe delivery delays that could directly impact customer satisfaction.

To mitigate these risks, businesses should operate with transparency, keeping customers informed even when delays are unavoidable. A strong example comes from our customer Gardenstate, who leveraged SMS to streamline their customer interactions and avoid delays for clients and contractors by allowing customers to communicate directly with the team. 

Gardenstate is just one example of the resounding impact that connecting with customers where they are can have – boosting engagement from their clientele while also improving their operational efficiency.

The regions most at risk of delivery delays

To identify which regions are expected to be the most at risk of delivery driver shortages, our team analysed over 82,000 job listings across Australia, the United Kingdom (UK), and Ireland, to pinpoint the countries and cities most at risk of delays this Black Friday and Christmas period. 

We used Indeed data and looked at the number of job vacancies in each region for the most common delivery job titles, including ‘heavy goods vehicle driver’, ‘delivery driver’, ‘logistics coordinator’, ‘picker packer’, and ‘parcel sorter’. We also analysed the current listings for ‘Christmas’ driver’. In total, we analysed the risk of delivery delays in 40 regions in the UK, and 15 in Ireland and Australia. 

The ‘Delivery Delays’ report reveals a critical challenge for Australian retailers in meeting delivery demands throughout this peak shopping season. 

The popularity of Black Friday sales has grown substantially in Australia, with Black Friday spending now outpacing the Christmas period – with retail turnover growing in all states and territories, intensifying delivery demands throughout the golden quarter.

The delivery landscape in Australia differs greatly, with notable variations in vacancy rates across its regions. 

The Northern Territory, with a vacancy rate of 34.8 per 100,000 residents, is at the highest risk of delivery delays, underscoring potential delivery challenges for residents in more remote or sparsely populated areas. 

Western Australia, while at a far lower rate of 16.3 per 100,000 people, had one the highest number of total vacancies, with 100 delivery drivers shortages alone.   

Queensland had the highest number of delivery vacancies with 757 and over 500 delivery driver vacancies. However, as one of the most populous states and the third-largest economy among Australian states, Queensland’s vacancy rate remains comparatively lower at 13.8 per 100,000 residents, indicating that it may be more resilient to delivery challenges than other regions, despite its size.

Top 5 regions most at risk of delivery delays, per capita (100,000)

Adelaide and the Gold Coast ranked as the top two cities most at risk of experiencing delivery delays, with vacancy rates of 6.0 and 5.5 per capita respectively. 

Major cities like Perth and Brisbane showed more moderate vacancy totals, with fewer than 100 vacancies each. 

Sydney and Melbourne had the lowest vacancy rates overall, at just 2.4 and 1.5 per 100,000 residents respectively, due to their large populations of over five million residents.

The risk of delivery delays in cities, per capita (100,000)

Christmas driver vacancies

As of October this year, there were 300 open ‘Christmas Driver’ roles already available in Australia. As the busy shopping season approaches, the present shortage could quickly become a challenge for Australian businesses looking to meet tight delivery deadlines. 

By not addressing these gaps in the delivery job market, the pressure on the entire delivery network may intensify closer to December, creating a challenge in meeting consumer expectations in the run-up to the holidays. 

Top tips for businesses

Jonathan Walsh, General Manager at Esendex Australia, commented on the findings: 

“As we see interest and demand around Black Friday shopping ramp up, even a moderate number of vacancies in delivery jobs is something that businesses need to be aware of. Our data reveals that certain territories within Australia could be at risk of significant delivery disruptions this golden quarter.

“While metro areas like Sydney and Melbourne may have a relatively lower risk of experiencing delays compared to more remote regions like the Northern Territory, external pressures on the supply chain can quickly lead to this becoming a significant issue during the peak shopping season. We’re also seeing a high uptick in the number of temporary ‘Christmas driver’ roles already open, with potentially more to follow. 

“For businesses to navigate this period effectively, they need to stay a step ahead of regional delivery demands, especially as customers increasingly expect fast, often next-day delivery. A proactive strategy, including automated alerts and delivery updates, using SMS and WhatsApp for Business. 

“Allowing businesses to update customers instantly on delivery status, any delays, and estimated arrival times helps to better manage expectations and enhance the customer experience. By keeping customers informed, businesses also reduce pressure on customer service channels.”

Find out more about SMS solutions for the retail industry here.

Methodology

Esendex collected and analysed job vacancy data from Indeed across 15 locations in Australia and Ireland, and 40 regions in the UK. Using keywords for common delivery roles and seasonal positions, Esendex examined the number of vacancies, and then calculated the vacancy rate against the total population data, sourced from City Population, to estimate the per capita demand for delivery roles. 

This enabled Esendex to identify the regions where customers may experience heightened risks of delays through the peak shopping season. 

All data is correct as of October 2024.